Can someone please explain to me what Vivek means by "semiconductor independence?" Because my brain keeps trying to create an image that's a cross between cell batteries and the Hadron Collider.
Vivek's just the media's latest shiny object to dangle in front of the masses. He's young! He's loud! He says stupid things and doubles down on them! It's almost like discovering Trump again for the first time! Don't touch that dial!
All three of our countries - US, China, Russia - are kind of screwed right now as our fertility rate is insufficient to maintain our population.
However, Russia is also screwing themselves out of the superpower game with the war in Ukraine damaging their economy, credibility and losing a lot of young men. (Either in battle or through fleeing the country to avoid the draft. And taking Ukraine won't help with the fertility problem either as their fertility rate is even worse. (Practically all of east and west Europe is in bad shape.)
The CCP in China has screwed their economy badly; their real estate bubble is, well, the Hindenberg, foreign investors are being scared away by policies around manufacturing, nationalizing businesses, routinely lying about their economic numbers and the constant persecution of wrong-think, and their leader has no intention of changing course from all appearances.
Meanwhile (Thanks Joe!) the American economy is booming and we're onshoring much of the technology, research and productionl we need to stay competitive. But, our birthrate is still in line with the other two.
The thing that changes the game is the immigration/emigration ratio. China's inflow is tiny and their outflow great. I don't see that changing. Russia is about at parity. The US is 17 immigrants for every 1 emigrant, more or less!
We're gonna win this race!
Final note - Africa is where the best fertility rates are, by far. Immigration from Africa is what the EU needs, so they need to get their policies in order.
Really final note - I think China's imbalance of men to women due to the one child policy and cultural preference for boy children has skewed their birth rate (per 1000 people) to underperform compared to the fertility rate (of women of childbearing age.) Got nothing to back that up, though, except that China and Russia's birth rate is several points lower than the US birth rate.
Some excellent analysis, but you're making one bad assumption: That a higher population is beneficial. Productivity (both actual and economical) has becomes more and more decoupled from the number of workers since the industrial revolution. At this point you only need a few people to outcompete a high-population country if your population is educated enough to have a decent level of automation.
And then there's the pollution/climate angle where we really need a lower population globally.
Thirty years ago I would have said a fertility of 1.8-2 would be optimal for shrinking the population since that leads to about 20%-10% population decrease each generation, which gives us a slow enough landing to deconstruct our industry as our population shrinks. But it turns out global warming is cascading, which means we don't have a lot of time to shrink the population. My new advice would be a fertility of 1-1.2 for a 55%-45% population drop per generation. I'd want it even faster if that didn't cause too large a retirement bubble, which is going to be a problem anyway. Hopefully we can maange it.
This. All this. Anything other than this is suicidal.
As long as we continue to allow the oligarchs to socialize their costs, and risks, while privatizing and hoarding massive profits at the expense of the entire planet, as well as the literal planet, things like a decent national/global strategy with regard to retirement, health care, environment, and on and on, is going to be unattainable.
Viv, I hear you talking about semiconductor independence, but I'm not seeing you put any of your techbro money into making it possible.
Let's get real--China and Russia have several areas of mutual interest, but they aren't equals at the moment as Russia gets pantsed on every front right now and China is smiling.
"That's too bad Vlad, sure do hate it for ya."
Viv just doesn't quite understand how foreign policy/geopolitical reality today still has a foot both in the Cold War and post 9/11 mentality.
He was born the year after I graduated high school so he doesn't have the lessons of our grandparents who were born in the Depression and went through WW2, who were right and wrong about a lot of shit but at least some of us were able to figure out which was which.
(Admittedly, a sizable percentage also swallowed the shit whole...but that's a digression for another time.)
He has a less than adequate understanding of US History relative to what those of us who heard first hand stories about "The War" (Don't Mention the War!).
Those people are gone now, but a couple of entire generations who have at least a second hand knowledge can call bullshit on Viv's worldview.
He makes the facial expressions of someone who is giving reasoned arguments, and yet everything coming out of his mouth is bullshit. I can see why some of those young republican types are confused. He is so enticing to their crowd
If PAB is a stable genius and the greatest president ever, how did a confused, sleepy dementia patient, who never left his basement, steal his second term so easily? And why is he being victimized on a daily basis by the same ol' coot? It doesn't add up!
After seeing that doddering old fool at the SOTU get the entire Republican caucus to not only publicly agree to take Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security off the budget negotiating table, he got them to give that accomplishment a standing ovation. I should be lucky to suffer such senility.
Can someone please explain to me what Vivek means by "semiconductor independence?" Because my brain keeps trying to create an image that's a cross between cell batteries and the Hadron Collider.
There several reasons that these dipshits would hate on Ramaswamovich
A. They’re Trumpsuckers.
II. He’s brown and they don’t quite believe he’s as white nationalist as he pretends to be.
4. He’s a idiot.
Vivek's just the media's latest shiny object to dangle in front of the masses. He's young! He's loud! He says stupid things and doubles down on them! It's almost like discovering Trump again for the first time! Don't touch that dial!
All three of our countries - US, China, Russia - are kind of screwed right now as our fertility rate is insufficient to maintain our population.
However, Russia is also screwing themselves out of the superpower game with the war in Ukraine damaging their economy, credibility and losing a lot of young men. (Either in battle or through fleeing the country to avoid the draft. And taking Ukraine won't help with the fertility problem either as their fertility rate is even worse. (Practically all of east and west Europe is in bad shape.)
The CCP in China has screwed their economy badly; their real estate bubble is, well, the Hindenberg, foreign investors are being scared away by policies around manufacturing, nationalizing businesses, routinely lying about their economic numbers and the constant persecution of wrong-think, and their leader has no intention of changing course from all appearances.
Meanwhile (Thanks Joe!) the American economy is booming and we're onshoring much of the technology, research and productionl we need to stay competitive. But, our birthrate is still in line with the other two.
The thing that changes the game is the immigration/emigration ratio. China's inflow is tiny and their outflow great. I don't see that changing. Russia is about at parity. The US is 17 immigrants for every 1 emigrant, more or less!
We're gonna win this race!
Final note - Africa is where the best fertility rates are, by far. Immigration from Africa is what the EU needs, so they need to get their policies in order.
Really final note - I think China's imbalance of men to women due to the one child policy and cultural preference for boy children has skewed their birth rate (per 1000 people) to underperform compared to the fertility rate (of women of childbearing age.) Got nothing to back that up, though, except that China and Russia's birth rate is several points lower than the US birth rate.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/total-fertility-rate
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/immigration-by-country
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/birth-rate-by-country
(I have not tried to access other sites to build a composite estimate.)
Some excellent analysis, but you're making one bad assumption: That a higher population is beneficial. Productivity (both actual and economical) has becomes more and more decoupled from the number of workers since the industrial revolution. At this point you only need a few people to outcompete a high-population country if your population is educated enough to have a decent level of automation.
And then there's the pollution/climate angle where we really need a lower population globally.
Thirty years ago I would have said a fertility of 1.8-2 would be optimal for shrinking the population since that leads to about 20%-10% population decrease each generation, which gives us a slow enough landing to deconstruct our industry as our population shrinks. But it turns out global warming is cascading, which means we don't have a lot of time to shrink the population. My new advice would be a fertility of 1-1.2 for a 55%-45% population drop per generation. I'd want it even faster if that didn't cause too large a retirement bubble, which is going to be a problem anyway. Hopefully we can maange it.
This. All this. Anything other than this is suicidal.
As long as we continue to allow the oligarchs to socialize their costs, and risks, while privatizing and hoarding massive profits at the expense of the entire planet, as well as the literal planet, things like a decent national/global strategy with regard to retirement, health care, environment, and on and on, is going to be unattainable.
Thank you.
Africa is where the best fertility rates are???
The best is the one that is wanted.
Africa is where women have the least health care and are forced to brea unwanted children.
Say 'highest' then.
Vivvy is this season's Herman Cain.
Viv, I hear you talking about semiconductor independence, but I'm not seeing you put any of your techbro money into making it possible.
Let's get real--China and Russia have several areas of mutual interest, but they aren't equals at the moment as Russia gets pantsed on every front right now and China is smiling.
"That's too bad Vlad, sure do hate it for ya."
Viv just doesn't quite understand how foreign policy/geopolitical reality today still has a foot both in the Cold War and post 9/11 mentality.
He was born the year after I graduated high school so he doesn't have the lessons of our grandparents who were born in the Depression and went through WW2, who were right and wrong about a lot of shit but at least some of us were able to figure out which was which.
(Admittedly, a sizable percentage also swallowed the shit whole...but that's a digression for another time.)
He has a less than adequate understanding of US History relative to what those of us who heard first hand stories about "The War" (Don't Mention the War!).
Those people are gone now, but a couple of entire generations who have at least a second hand knowledge can call bullshit on Viv's worldview.
Jeez, Vivek has the face of a line cook in a bad rib joint.
He makes the facial expressions of someone who is giving reasoned arguments, and yet everything coming out of his mouth is bullshit. I can see why some of those young republican types are confused. He is so enticing to their crowd
Ta, Evan. VR is living proof that being rich and being smart are not synonymous.
Donald Trump, Mark Zuckerberg, and Elon Musk pretty much cemented that concept for me long before Viv came along.
This guy is actually making Sarah Palin look smart by comparison.
That is...quite the accomplishment actually.
But does he let his kid stand on the dog? You need that endearing shit also, too.
Does Ramaswamydingdong know that OHJB has passed legislation in the direction of semiconductor independence
"I want to do everything Joe Biden's doing, exactly the way he's doing it, but I don't like the direction he's taking the country."
Ray Smith Becomes First Defendant To Enter Plea In Georgia Election Case
The Atlanta-based lawyer faces 12 charges over his efforts to undo Joe Biden's 2020 win.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ray-smith-enters-plea-georgia-election-case_n_64edc313e4b084283f268046
That didn't take long.
If PAB is a stable genius and the greatest president ever, how did a confused, sleepy dementia patient, who never left his basement, steal his second term so easily? And why is he being victimized on a daily basis by the same ol' coot? It doesn't add up!
After seeing that doddering old fool at the SOTU get the entire Republican caucus to not only publicly agree to take Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security off the budget negotiating table, he got them to give that accomplishment a standing ovation. I should be lucky to suffer such senility.
Another classic screengrab!
Evan, thank you for watching and reporting back. I really needed those laughs today!
Rama Dama Ding Dong has changed his stance on more than foreign policy issues. He should be nicknamed Flipper. And it’s all on video.
(also, his ideas are repulsive, and he is belligerent).
Flipper libelz!
He's studied Trump well.