Biden Administration Maybe Slowing Its Roll On EV Transition, Sucks If True

Goddamn it, there's kind of a climate crisis on, you know.

Joe Biden checks out a Jeep EV at a White House Event. White House photo.

According to unnamed White House insiders, the Biden administration is looking to partly slow down the EPA’s implementation of strict fuel economy standards intended to push automakers to manufacture more electric vehicles by the end of the decade, the New York Times reported (gift link) over the weekend. The new mileage requirements, announced last April, had been designed to require that two-thirds of new cars sold in the US be electric (or other zero-emissions tech) by 2032, but US manufacturers and union autoworkers opposed the rules, saying they’d lead to job losses since EVs have fewer parts and may need fewer workers to build.

Exactly how the proposed EPA rules will change isn’t clear yet, but the Times says the strictest mileage requirements wouldn’t kick in until after 2030, according to sources. Instead of forcing a rapid buildup of manufacturers’ EV fleets by 2032, the timeline is apparently being tweaked to allow a more gradual increase in EV offerings through 2030, and a sharper increase after — though the story doesn’t say what year the toughest requirement would be in place. The final rule will be published in early spring.

According to the Times, this is all election year politicking:

The change comes as President Biden faces intense crosswinds as he runs for re-election while trying to confront climate change. He is aiming to cut carbon dioxide emissions from gasoline-powered vehicles, which make up the largest single source of greenhouse gases emitted by the United States.

At the same time, Mr. Biden needs cooperation from the auto industry and political support from the unionized auto workers who backed him in 2020 but now worry that an abrupt transition to electric vehicles would cost jobs. Meanwhile, consumer demand has not been what automakers hoped, with potential buyers put off by sticker prices and the relative scarcity of charging stations.

Now, it’s true that US manufacturers have backed off some of their targets for EV sales this year, citing weakened customer demand. But as Heatmap News reported in November, that probably has more to do with easing of gas prices after the inflation spike of 2022, and even more to do with high interest rates, which have slowed car sales overall. EV sales continue to grow rapidly, just not as rapidly as they had been. The Fed’s plans to cut interest rates three times this year may help.

At least the reports don’t suggest that the final mileage standard will be weakened, just delayed, which is entirely bad enough, given that the planet just saw its hottest year on record. The more slowly the transition away from fossil fuels happens, the hotter the planet will get, and the worse the effects will be.

So how mad should we be about this change? Hard to say until we see the actual rules, but I’m going for medium mad; it strikes me as a bad idea to back off an important climate goal due to what looks like temporary market conditions. Climate and energy reporter Dave Roberts also pointed out that slowing the transition to EVs could backfire badly on US manufacturers:

Chinese EV manufacturers are going to shrug off all our tariffs & stomp into the US market & eat the lunch of the perpetually sluggish US automakers. I would say they will learn their lesson, but let's be real, based on historical experience, we'll just bail them out again.

The story has prompted a load of premature celebrations by fans of fossil fuels and some really stupid claims that EVs are now done for. But the cluelessness is annoying; the Washington Post story on the rule change (gift link) has a comments section full of trolls repeating every anti-EV talking point you can imagine. It’s a regular catalog of EV disinformation in there, from people who insist current problems (limited selection, not enough charging stations) will never improve, to those proclaiming EVs can never work and are in fact a socialist plot to take away Americans’ freedom.

Will this adjustment really make a big difference for the 2024 election? The one thing that remains absolutely certain is that Donald Trump and the entire rightwing convoy of fossil fuel ghouls are dead set on gutting Biden’s very real climate achievements if they retake power, so it’s still as important as ever to reelect Joe Biden, even if we squint at him a little over this move.

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[NYT (gift link) / WaPo (gift link) / Heatmap News / Heatmap]