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Crip Dyke's avatar

california is also doing some good in demonstrating (along with other places) that intermittent renewables staggered across a wide area + batteries can be **largely** stable baseload power.

It's not perfect. It's not providing the baseload for 365 days a year, but it provided 100% of electricity over a 24 hour period for more days than ever last year -- over 100 days, if I remember correctly.

Batteries are still expensive b/c so much R&D has been focussed on making them lightweight rather than as cheap as possible (the lightweight ones are necessary for vehicle use). However we have to consider three things:

1) there are now non-lithium ion batteries that have better cycle-life economy (they last longer for a similar price) and in some cases are just flat out cheaper AND have better cycle-life, meaning the cycle-life economy ridiculously outstrips Li-Ion for applications where it's okay if the batteries are heavy.

2) Those batteries with better economy and/or cycle life are ramping up production and have already been installed in a few grid-backup facilities.

3) The batteries make solar power a better investment. This requires a 3a and 3b:

(a)Prices for electricity are cheaper when solar panels are making the most possible electricity (middle of the day) and demand is moderate, and spikes in the early evening when kids and parents come home and start using electricity in residences while most businesses aren't actually closed down yet -- there may be fewer people in the office/workplace/whatever, but they still have ALL the lights on, since you can't ration the lights on a per-eyeball basis.

(b) If batteries are filling during the day, that increases demand for that middle-of-the-day cheaper energy, and if they're discharging in the evening, that allows them to make a profit off that energy bought in the middle of the day.

The result of 3a and 3b together is that solar electricity can be sold for more money during the day and still allow the battery developments to pay for themselves reselling that electricity at a higher price later EVEN IF the higher evening price next year is less than the peak price this year. Over time, this dynamic allows the daytime price and the evening price to come closer together. Now, this is bad news for batteries, which will have less margin to work with to pay for themselves, but it's great news for solar, and since battery manufacturers are finally ramping up production of heavy, cheap batteries for stationary use, future battery installations can still make money since they'll be cheaper up front and have a longer lifetime of maintenance-free buying and reselling. If you make a penny a day but last 100x longer than the battery that earns a quarter a day, you eventually make more money. (Inflation will cause investors to still value that distant income less than near-term income, but this is just an example -- the point is that energy price margins between noon and 6pm will narrow, but the changing economics of batteries will keep them profitable for a long time.)

And if all that wasn't good enough, even as Californians are buying more electric vehicles, demand went DOWN by 1% last year.

Why?

In a word: wildfires. The terrible choices of PG&E (California's main electrical utility) have led to many fires, which led to billions of dollars in liability. That means that ratepayers are paying for not just electricity, but also PG&E's lawsuit payouts. And that means that economically speaking, the savings from rooftop solar is even better. Combine that with state subsidies on home battery systems (that make sure that daytime solar generation isn't wasted for people at work) and power conservation measures, and you're adding so much peak-hour distributed capacity and seeing so many home owners change to more efficient devices that total demand on the central grid has dipped.

In sum, California is showing that 24-hour renewable energy cycles can work without fossil fuel baseload power, and the state is decarbonizing more quickly than expected -- even with AI and EVs.

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Prometheus59650's avatar

Columbia refuses US deportation flights.

Now?

Sanctions, travel bans, and tariffs. 25% now, 50% in a week.

https://www.reddit.com/r/LeopardsAteMyFace/comments/1iaoayb/they_voted_for_lower_grocery_prices/#lightbox

***

Grocery prices will come down any minute now.

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