Oh hello, what’s this? The most important newspaper in the world, USA Today, has released the results of its latest little poll with the Massachusetts-based numbers gremlins at Suffolk University. Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz probably liked this info, and perhaps you will, too.
With President Joe Biden sidelined − to the dismay of Republicans, not Democrats − Harris in the space of six weeks has eclipsed the enthusiasm gap with the GOP and narrowed Trump's advantage on handling the economy and immigration, the survey finds.
She now leads Trump 48%-43%, an edge within the poll's margin of error. At least one televised debate − next Tuesday, Sept. 10 − is ahead, and about 1 in 10 voters say they might change their mind or are undecided.
For context: The poll of 1,000 likely voters was taken over landline (classic!) and cell phone (remember bag phones in the car?) August 25-28, in the days after the Democratic National Convention concluded in Chicago. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Is it safe to say some respondents were riding high off the convention that saw Lil’ Jon take his deserved place amidst the most brilliant political orators of this or any era? Yes. Should we depend upon polls like this to provide the shaky foundation upon which we build a broad, sweeping predictive statement? No.
But check out Evan’s post on Kamala Harris raising loads of money and the such. And think about how much things have changed in the six and a half weeks (!) since President Biden announced he would not continue his bid for re-election.
When fear becomes a habit, it can take a little while to get up to speed on this whole “enthusiasm gap” thing. But a lot of us seem to be getting there, and it doesn’t feel foolish or absurd. It feels pretty decent, actually.
Obviously, many of us continue to have well-founded anxiety and apprehension over, you know, the other side’s plan to screw up the election and steal it and spread lies and whip up their frothing minions like they did a few years ago.
But! One might be forgiven for feeling a little stirring in one’s gut that speaks not of post-Taco Bell Cantina raging indigestion, but something pleasant. Something less dependent on the layering of bean dip with margaritas with grease with processed cheese. Something like … hope? In a pragmatic way?
Let’s learn a little more about the McPaper of Record’s latest poll.
In June, registered voters said they supported their local Republican congressional candidate over the Democratic one by a narrow 47%-45%. Now likely voters support the Democratic candidate over the Republican by 48%-43%, still a small margin but a swing of seven points.
What does this one poll mean in the grand scheme of the race? Not much. It’s a temperature check of a limited group of people, in this case comprising just 1,000 of the 333 million-ish humans living in the U.S. of A. There is no way to predict exactly what will happen between now and November 5, much less what’ll happen after Election Day.
And yet, still — these optimistic moments provide a reason to smile, even if you hide your smile behind a mask because you are too cool to show your happy face and also because you do not want to catch the COVID again.
It is foolish to be overconfident heading into any election. It is extra foolish to assume things can’t change on a dime — as one Tracy Flick memorably learned.
But in case any of my fellow anxiety-riddled humans need to hear this too: It’s okay to let encouraging data and stories and events perk up one’s spirit, even as horrible shit unfolds internationally and domestically. It can be hard to hold all of these contradictory elements at once, to continue to engage with good news as well as bad. Some of us (ahem) are more inclined to emphasize That Which Sucks instead of also looking at That Which Does Not Suck.
All this is just to say that in between stressing over bills, worrying about the future and ruminating on the past, it is healthy to pause, take a deep breath, and allow oneself to acknowledge the good things, too. Being constantly braced for disaster at all times does not magically stave off said disaster. Nor does it really make us better prepared to handle what nightmares may come.
So drink enough water, take good care of yourselves, remember to do your stretches, and maybe buy a donut pillow for your butt so you don’t get the hemorrhoids from watching too much TV news on the couch. If you start to feel droopy and disconsolate, come back and visit us here, where there will always be Poetic Yelling and also Laughs.
Now here is a video of baby goats to return to whenever you need it.
This entire post was cunningly crafted to induce a discussion of '90s bag phones for the car. (It wasn't, but still, I demand a discussion of this.)
Look. My husband has cancer and I was avoiding the political news until Biden stepped out of the race. I felt shocked and stunned. But Harris running has raised my hopes and I can at least, manage paying attention to the present and cheer for our side (plus any donations I can make etc). Plus, husband had brain tumors zapped through targeted radiation and is doing so much better!