Polls Still Saying Trump's Up A Creek If He's Convicted Of Crimes
Polls Still Saying Trump's Up A Creek If He's Convicted Of Crimes
Rigged! Stollen!
Hey, let’s have a poll porn!
We’ve talked about how polls aren’t necessarily the end-all, be-all of literally anything, but they can be interesting as snapshots, especially in a presidential race with as many unknowns as this one has. It’s like we’ve got this one big known, namely that unless something surprising happens, it will be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But a lot of other weird shit could intervene.
One such possible example of weird shit? What if one of those criminal cases against Donald Trump actually moves along fast enough that Trump is convicted of a crime before the election? It would be bad for him! And that’s been a consistent in the polls for a long damn time, so we are pretty sure statistical types might call it a trend. Indeed, back in December, Norm Eisen and some of his buddies found that a conviction might be Trump’s Achilles’ heel, based on analysis of six full months of polling.
Now, a new one comes from NBC News. Bear in mind, this is a poll that has Trump up five nationally, 47 to 42. Which is an interesting number to us because, as we have mentioned already once today, Trump’s ceiling appears to be 47. He doesn’t make new friends. So we suspect that Republican types and Democrat types may be talking a bit differently to pollsters.
Regardless!
This poll says it’s 45 to 43 Biden if Trump is convicted of a crime. Which suggests there are some leaners in there that would just lean the other way if a jury confirmed what all sentient beings should already know about Trump.
Some of the most pronounced shifts come among voters who backed Biden strongly in 2020, but among whom he is struggling now as president — younger voters, Latinos and independents.
Interesting.
NBC News shows the data on the original question, which for example has the two candidates tied at 42-42 among the 18 to 34 set. (Another reason we just are a bit curious about whether national polling is healthy or an accurate reflection of anything right now.) But that does turn into Biden up 15 in that same cohort, with a Trump conviction (47-32).
The poll has Biden down a point among Latinos without a Trump conviction (42-41), but up 10 with (45-35).
And it shows that independents — whoever they are! — still break for Trump the criminal, 40 to 32. This poll has them starting out as 48-29, Trump, absent a conviction. Another reason we are just a bit curious about whether … you get the idea.
But again, even if the polls are sick, there might be useful trends, like the one that’s been going for months that says if Trump is convicted of one of his crimes, he’s up shit creek.
And that is why Nikki Haley is going to stay in this race as close to “forever” as she can muster.
This has been a post about polls.
[NBC News]
Evan Hurst on Twitter right here.
@evanjosephhurst on Threads!
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I'm a registered Democrat, but I'm not "dependent." I picked the team I think does the best job, however imperfect, of working towards the common good.
With all due respect, claiming to be independent yet aligned with one of the two parties serves what positive function? Are you in the fight to improve the choice of candidates, the party and affect outcomes?
Or does being independent simply give you the satisfaction of complaining about outcomes you don't prefer? From what I see, independent voters are just as subject to misinformation as everyone else. Nobody likes pandering, but that's what the parties have to do to sway the "independent" vote.
I'm so over the "pox on both your houses" and "both sides do it" shit.
I’m beginning to believe the entire justice system is simply relying on death to solve the problem.