Dems Getting Closer And Closer To Taking Senate, Let's Not F*ck It Up!
And more poll porns for you!
As we watch Donald Trump and Republicans pull their pants down and play with their poo in front of American voters, just destroying and getting their smears on everything they touch — as Trump starts wars only to lose them in record time, as he openly declares that gas prices are staying the same or maybe going up, as JD Vance causes everything he looks at to go flaccid, as Trump declares himself Jesus and shits on the pope — one might wonder how things are looking for them in the polls, here, seven months out from the midterms.
As it happens, we have some updates on that!
The Cook Political Report made big headlines yesterday when it moved four seats in the Senate toward Democrats, in very big and important ways. (Hey remember when the House was the sure bet for Democrats and the Senate seemed like a long shot?)
Before yesterday, Cook had the Senate race in North Carolina as a tossup. It is now a “Lean Democrat.” This is the open seat to replace Republican Thom Tillis, who is quitting this shit and going home. This would make that a pickup for Dems. This is where former Governor Roy Cooper, who knows how to run and win statewide in North Carolina as a Democrat, is running to win. Put your bux on him.
Before yesterday, Cook had the Jon Ossoff race in Georgia as a tossup. It is now a “Lean Democrat.” Because Jon Ossoff is sexy and those Georgia Republicans are A BUNCHA NUTS. There are probably other electoral factors at play, but we didn’t start writing this blog post to be forced to look up stuff. (Cook notes that the GOP primary in Georgia is a real mess, and so does Politico. Meanwhile Jon Ossoff is just over here, bein’ sexy and campaigning and raising money.)
Put your bux on him, sexily.
Ohio! Remember how Sherrod Brown was in the Senate, but then he lost his seat to a disgusting creep man, which could describe any Republican man, but in this case describes Bernie Moreno? Well he’s back, he’s running against current Republican Senator Jon Husted, and Cook has just shifted that race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”
In Ohio! Which in any other non-Trump-2.0 world would be so far red we wouldn’t even be talking about it. Give Sherrod your bux.
Oh, and then how about Nebraska! That guy Dan Osborn is running again, as an independent, like he did before! He’s running against Senator Pete Ricketts, and who knows, but Cook just moved that race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican,” which could at the very least force Republicans to spend campaign bux on things that should be sure bets for them. Go ahead and put some bux at him too.
Right now, the makeup of the Senate is 53 Republicans, 44 real Democrats, two independents (Bernie and Angus King) and one John Fetterman. The goal is for Democrats to win so many seats that we can keep forcing John Fetterman to sit all by himself, or if the Republicans decide they want his sloppy can’t-buy-a-suit-lookin’-ass it won’t even matter.
In other sexy news of Democrats winning in the polls and Republicans screwing themselves, Gen Z, those rapscallions, those whippersnappers, those so-and-sos, those gadabouts, those noodle-heads, those blunderbusses, those jolterheads, those lobcocks, those unlicked cubs, are fully moving toward the Democrats, according to the new Yale Youth Poll.
This is a big deal, because remember how Trump managed his squeaker in 2024 largely due to how he reached out to some youngs, particularly podcast-listening young men? Newsweek notes that two years ago, Republicans and Democrats were about tied with the youngest youngs. These days the 18-22 group prefers Democrats by 23 points. Dems are ahead by 30 points among the 24-29s.
And why? Because like all decent human beings, they fucking loathe Donald Trump. Trump’s disapproval rate among 18-22s is 68 percent. Among 30-34s, it is 75 percent. The only group where Trump is not underwater in the approval rating race is, you guessed it, Gen X, fucking Gen X, what is fucking wrong with you, we mean us.
Look at this shit:
Gen X is also the only group where Democrats don’t lead on the generic ballot. Look at this shit:
Seriously, fucking Gen X. But back to the point, which is the youngs!
The Trump hate is growing among both Gen Z men and women too, though it’s still strongest among women. (One weird anomaly Newsweek noted is that Democrats actually lost a slight bit of ground among 18-22 men, but also that the “I hate Trump” numbers in that group rose. Poor 18-22 boys, their frontal lobes aren’t finished growing.)
Overall, though, the groups where Democrats have gained the most — which matters for the midterms — are women 18-45 and men 23-34. (Again, bless those 18-22 boys’ hearts.)
So that is what is happening with that poll. Read the whole thing here!
Finally, there are no numbers attached to this, but Axios is out with an article this week that suggests that Donald Trump attacking the pope and taking literal shits on the baby Jesus may hurt his standing among American Catholics, who are very swingy with their votes, and whom he won in 2024. And the people they talked to are seeing movement among white Catholics too, not just Latino Catholics, which is happening for obvious reasons.
Comments from the expert Axios talked to:
“I cannot think of any parallels, at least coming from Western Christian majority countries, of such pointed and public attacks on the Pope,” Andrew Chesnut, Virginia Commonwealth University’s Catholic studies chair, tells Axios. […]
The conclave comment may be particularly risky, said Chesnut in a Monday phone interview. Many Catholics believe the Holy Spirit guides cardinals in selecting a pope. Trump’s claim Leo was chosen for political reasons challenges a process devout Catholics consider sacred.
You’d think maybe shitting on the pope and Jesus would be the last thing Donald Trump would want to do right now, but hey, he think he’s his own best political strategist. Let him keep going.
You’re nailing it, sir, we say as a big strong man with tears in our eyes!
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So when Ohio gets Sherrod Brown back and we elect a Democratic woman as governor I will be glad to have helped.
When I left super blue NYC, maybe I brought a little with me when I moved to Ohio. Hope that is, I brought hope with me.
𝗔𝘁 𝗮 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻’𝘀 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗬𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁, 𝗙𝗹𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗻 𝗜𝗿𝗮𝗻 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗹𝗮𝘀𝗵
Representative Mike Lawler, who is seeking re-election in a swing district in the Hudson Valley, faced tough questions from constituents about his stance on the war in Iran.
...At a time when Republican leaders in Congress have ceded much of their power to Mr. Trump and refrained from exercising oversight of the Iran war in particular, Mr. Lawler was among the only G.O.P. members of Congress who dared to hold an in-person session with constituents while he was in his district during a two-week spring recess. His seat in the Hudson Valley, an area that Kamala Harris narrowly won in 2024, is among those that will determine control of the House...
Mr. Lawler said it would have been “idiotic” for Congress to attempt to intervene, contending that that would only have strengthened Iran’s remaining leaders.
“The fact is that the president is well within his authority to conduct the strikes that have been conducted,” he said. “At this moment, as they are in negotiations, as they’re working through this, for Congress to take a definitive step to order the withdrawal actually undermines the United States.”
That drew a lengthy rebuke from Marion Walsh of nearby Cortlandt, N.Y., who said that Mr. Lawler had “abdicated your responsibility” to his constituents in a district that did not support Mr. Trump, and pleaded with him to “please do your job.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/14/us/politics/at-a-house-republicans-new-york-event-flashes-of-an-iran-backlash.html