No, we don’t know how things are going, YET, but there’s already a lot for Democrats to like about the turnout for early voting across the US. More than 59 million people nationwide have already voted, a new record high turnout for a midterm election.
The New York Times reports (gift link) that early voting is ahead of the 2022 midterms in all the “major Senate battlegrounds,” and that the numbers offer “few positives for Republicans” so far. Of course, after a decade of Donald Trump insisting that voting by mail is “rigged” (and even early in-person voting is suspect if Democrats do it), Republicans tend to vote more on Election Day, except not so much so far today.
On the whole, the national early-voting electorate looks “younger, more diverse and politically independent” than usual, per political science prof Michael McDonald, who runs the U of Florida election lab. That could make a hell of a big difference, as we’ll see in several states. Young voters, Black voters, and Hispanic voters are all very, very pissed off and sick of Trump.
Let’s dig in, as we remember all the sober cautions about when chickens and votes should be counted, because we don’t want to tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing. With that in mind, let’s nonetheless indulge in a little exuberance, because there’s some exciting stuff going on, especially in the South and in Texas.
Texas: 7.7 million Early Votes, New Dang Record
More than 40 percent of registered Texas voters cast ballots by Friday, the end of early voting, busting the record midterm turnout of 2018. Ballots sent by mail will still be counted if they arrive by close of voting today, of course.
The big news is that Hispanic turnout is up sharply from 2022, both nationwide and in Texas, where the early vote among Hispanic voters was up 87 percent over 2022. As part of that trend, turnout in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley is up by 64 percent from 2022. All but one of the eight Texas counties that had higher early turnout than in 2024 are more than 70 percent Hispanic.
Hey, look at this, too! More than 763,000 Texans who sat out the 2024 election turned out to vote early this year. Out of that collection of newly reactivated voters, nearly half (367,329) are Hispanic, and within that Hispanic surge, about 40 percent are under the age of 30; and nearly 65 percent of those returning Gen Z voters are women.
These are all voters who really do not like Trump. Nationally, Trump’s job approval with Hispanic voters (26 percent) is even lower than the overall average of 37 percent.
Turnout is also up sharply in Texas’s most populous counties — Harris, Dallas, and Tarrant — and in urban precincts, both of which likely mean higher turnout among Hispanic and Black voters, according to Democratic strategist Matt Angle, who cautioned that the early vote doesn’t guarantee Democratic wins, just the possibility that Dems will do well. He doesn’t want to have to go outside, turn around three times, and spit. And curse.
Election Day voting is likely to bring out older Republican, Anglo voters, but with widespread disgust at Ken Paxton, there’s a good chance James Talarico (D) will be going to the Senate, and a pretty good chance for Gina Hinojosa to boot out incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott.
Elsewhere across the South, things are also looking hopey-changey too, particularly for the prospects of Dems retaking the Senate. (We just spat and cursed, too, just in case.)
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South Carolina: Did Lindsey Graham Drop The Ball By Dying?
With well over a million votes cast during early voting, South Carolina voters set a new midterms record, with 75 percent higher turnout than in 2022. South Carolina doesn’t register voters by party, so we don’t have a breakdown of partisan turnout, but the US Senate race between Lindsey Graham’s sister (R) and Democrat Annie Andrews is so close that Fox News has changed it to a toss-up. Darline Graham’s lackluster campaigning and the sense among many voters that she’s a “nepo senator” could combine to send Andrews to the Senate.
Also, while the state Lege had the good sense not to gerrymander Rep. James Clyburn out of Congress, Black voter anger over the nationwide fuckery could boost voting for Jermaine Johnson, the Black Democrat running for governor. While Republican dollop of mayonnaise Alan Wilson is favored to win, higher Black turnout could help get Andrews over the line. Johnson jokes that if that happens, “they better call and thank me.”
Georgia: Record Midterm Turnout, Again
More than 2.8 million Georgians voted in three weeks of voting, a new record over 2022’s high-turnout midterm. Jon Ossoff should easily hold his seat against weird MAGA dickhead Nazi Mike Collins, and increased Black and Hispanic voting — both up significantly from 2022 and 2024 — could be very good news for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms. And as Ossoff noted the other day, Georgia is seeing “record-breaking youth turnout for a midterm election in Georgia,” which he said will be decisive — and his campaign is focused on getting out the youngs. Yes, really, in a freaking midterm, usually the province of older voters.
Georgia is another of those states without party registration, but turnout for the Democratic primaries this year was far higher than for Republicans.
Bottoms is in a very close race with Republican billionaire Rick Jackson, who has set records pouring his own money into the race, and there’s a decent chance that Ossoff’s popularity plus all those pissed off young and Black voters could help her win the governorship.
Florida
Florida’s Republican leadership doesn’t think climate change is real. On Election Day, the climate offered a rebuttal, with flooding so bad that seven counties had to relocate polling locations. Yes, yes, weather is not climate, but long-term patterns sure as hell are.
Fortunately, nearly 40 percent of registered Floridians — about 5.4 million — already voted early or by mail as of Monday. State election data analyzed by the University of Florida's Election Lab indicated that statewide, slightly more Republicans voted (2,188,009) than Democrats (2,057,701). Not surprising given the 1.5 million advantage in Republican registration. But turnout among Democrats ran at about 49 percent while about 38 percent of Republicans voted.
Axios reports that in South Florida (Broward and Miami-Dade counties), Democrats led Republicans in voting. The higher Democratic turnout may make a difference for Angie Nixon in the race for Senate.
And The Rest
Anger over the Supreme Court’s redistricting and Voting Rights Act fuckery is energizing Black voters across the South, putting Mississippi’s Senate election in play — not only because of the “blacklash” to Trump and redistricting, but also because Scott Colom is just plain more interesting than incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde Smith.
In North Carolina, high early turnout and polling give former Gov. Roy Cooper a solid advantage, and the Republicans have basically given up on saving Thom Tillis’s former seat (spit and curse!).
And in Louisiana, ground zero for Republican gerrymandering ratfucks, early voting surged, with the highest turnout for Democrats and independents. Thirty-four percent of early voters were Black, and that could actually be a factor in the fight for the Louisiana Senate seat, where Republican Congresswoman Julia Letlow is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Jamie Davis, a farmer. The race appears to have Republicans uncharacteristically worried, to the point that Trump himself has mentioned Letlow on social media and did a 10-minute “tele rally” Monday night to invited Republicans. He called Davis a “loser” who’s out to “destroy all of the tremendous success” Trump brought to Louisiana, if any.
You can see how closely Trump has studied up on the race. In a characteristically thoughtful endorsement, he told supporters “I don’t see how Julia can possibly lose to this person. I have no idea who that person is.”
Whatever the outcome, Trump will call it a landslide, all for him.
Let’s make him lie about that, shall we?
Join us at about 7 p.m. for liveblog and whatnot! See you then!
[USA Today / NYT (guest link) / USA Today / Texas Tribune / Wired / WSJ (gift link) / Politico / Florida Politics / WTSP / Axios /
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ALSO TOO: Yr Fall Wonkette Book Club is rolling right along! We’re reading Bill McKibben’s 2025 bestseller Here Comes the Sun (Wonkette affiliate link), all about the clean energy revolution and how it can get us out of our climate fix and even improve society somewhat (if we do it fast and do it right.)
We had a great first meeting, and this coming Sunday (November 8) we’ll be reading Section Two, “There’s No Reason Not To Do This” in which McKibben knocks down all the myths about how we “can’t” transition away from fossil fuels. (Spoiler: They’re mostly propaganda.) More here!
Harry says all the cool cats vote for Democrats!
https://substack.com/profile/155618292-ziggywiggy/note/c-377930907?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=2knfuc
BREAKING NEWS!
Voting results have just been certified at my house.
My wife will remain in charge for another four years.